I though the market will nosedive and sold most stock, then shorted the xjo for the 2000 point drop . Ive unwound them after making alot and took up myr at 9c, mah at 15c and swm at 6.5c. Banks I've gone long on with warrants.
Nz is easing restrictings, we will soon, China back to work, I do believe things will return to normal with double the normal grow in q4.
Q2 and q3 will show contraction, but q4 will pick it up.
Most countries have peaked, we have just 2000 active cases now.
The government has done a wonderful job hear and nz, the debts are at 0.25%, as a percentage of gdp manageable, I can't say that bout other nations.
We can be productive without the rest of the world you know with nz, most of our exports go to China as raw materials, bhp, rio, fortescue, they have held up to protect balance of trade.
On tourism, that will do well, aussies rather than going os, will have to see aussie tourusm spots, that will replace overseas tourists, it also keeps the money within Australia.
Manufacturing will get a kick as there will be products made hear that were not before, like gloves, masks ventilators, so this virus actually will turn the tide on bringing some manufacturing back.
Airlines will recover, qantas will, virgin not, but on them they have not made a profit in 10 years, so virgin was always going to go bust as its not a viable business.
Retail is performing well, I'm a retailer since mid 2000 and sales are up 200% due to corona virus, you'll find myers, djs etc have had large increases in online.
Bricks and mortar retail is finished, the writings been on the wall for 10 years, I predict in 15 years most westields will be apartments. So retail is doing well, just physical shops is not, if you look at online growth, retail is not on its knees, just old school is. Its a tech change.
Physical store to online, as did rent dvds to streaming, remember blockbuster. Cars, petrol to EV. Fixed phone to mobile etc.
The more physical shops that go, the more happy I am along with my online colleges. I've had 50% compound growth every year since 2005. The physical stores need to take hold of change, get online to survive because running costs are 75% lower. Ie I can run at half the margin as a physical store and still have higher ebit.
When the corona virus new cases were high, I was very negative, but that's changed to a handful a day. My sister in law is a nurse, they installed heaps of ventilators, cancelled elective and sat there with nothing to do waiting on a twiddle wave, that did not happen.
She believes it won't, proviso we keep social distancing till the active cases are pretty much zero and new ones are.
To me this is an unfortunate blip, that will pass and things will correct with benefits. I'm cautious, but not pessimistic based on the growth in online retail, people have just changed where they buy. Myer for example drop in physical sales but increase in online were costs are lower, nobody knows there figures, but they maybe better off.
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