Ann: Macmahon FY21 Investor Presentation, page-19

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rollacoaster

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25/01/22

14:37

Post #: 59120792
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Originally posted by rhendrix ↑

I think MacMahon has a low share price because the Profit after tax is still benefiting from the Deferred tax assets (DTA) therefore making profit look larger than usual. As stated in the annual report, effective tax rate should be ~27 percent but tax rate paid was 5.7 percent due to DTA's. Therefore if they had paid 27 percent close to a normal company's tax rate profit after tax would have been ~$60 million. This makes PE about 6.5 at todays market cap (not 5 as listed)

Also MacMahon has a terrible Profit before tax ratio = 5-6% of Revenue therefore any slight change in costs strongly affects their bottom line

Macmahon also has a huge depreciation expense, around $150 million per year. This is a lot for a company with market cap of $390 million which also highlights that if they lose any contracts they will still have the large depreciation and a lot less revenue therefore profit will drop severely

As per the latest Macquarie presentation CAPEX for 2022 is $296 million (2021 CAPEX was $270 million.) Each year about half of the CAPEX is for supposed growth however each year revenue goes up less than the growth CAPEX - hence the business is not such a great one and also why they cannot afford a good dividend payout ratio.

Each year the shareholders equity goes up by around the retained profits. Assets balloon but so does debt. I think the market is cautious of this stock as any change in market conditions and cost will have a huge impact on Macmahons bottom line. Essentially it is not a vey good business and if they lose any work they will be left with lots of depreciating assets. I am just counting on the business valuation at least going up to the equity value of NTA's and then I'll sell the stock.

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'any slight change in costs'

most of MAH contracts have rise abd fall provisions, even more so the alliance partner contracts.
This insulates MAH's margins to a significant degree

MAH Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 27.5¢		Change -0.005(1.79%)		Mkt cap ! $592.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
28.5¢	28.5¢	27.5¢	$1.066M	3.815M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	176076	27.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
28.0¢	109800	3

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	176076	0.275
10	332968	0.270
1	100000	0.265
2	72865	0.260
3	20785	0.255

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.280	109800	3
0.285	246958	5
0.290	262318	6
0.295	518253	9
0.300	1277104	23

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Ann: Macmahon FY21 Investor Presentation, page-19

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Ann: Macmahon FY21 Investor Presentation, page-19

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