'any slight change in costs' most of MAH contracts have rise abd...

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rollacoaster

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25/01/22

14:37

Post #: 59120792
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Originally posted by rhendrix ↑

I think MacMahon has a low share price because the Profit after tax is still benefiting from the Deferred tax assets (DTA) therefore making profit look larger than usual. As stated in the annual report, effective tax rate should be ~27 percent but tax rate paid was 5.7 percent due to DTA's. Therefore if they had paid 27 percent close to a normal company's tax rate profit after tax would have been ~$60 million. This makes PE about 6.5 at todays market cap (not 5 as listed)

Also MacMahon has a terrible Profit before tax ratio = 5-6% of Revenue therefore any slight change in costs strongly affects their bottom line

Macmahon also has a huge depreciation expense, around $150 million per year. This is a lot for a company with market cap of $390 million which also highlights that if they lose any contracts they will still have the large depreciation and a lot less revenue therefore profit will drop severely

As per the latest Macquarie presentation CAPEX for 2022 is $296 million (2021 CAPEX was $270 million.) Each year about half of the CAPEX is for supposed growth however each year revenue goes up less than the growth CAPEX - hence the business is not such a great one and also why they cannot afford a good dividend payout ratio.

Each year the shareholders equity goes up by around the retained profits. Assets balloon but so does debt. I think the market is cautious of this stock as any change in market conditions and cost will have a huge impact on Macmahons bottom line. Essentially it is not a vey good business and if they lose any work they will be left with lots of depreciating assets. I am just counting on the business valuation at least going up to the equity value of NTA's and then I'll sell the stock.

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'any slight change in costs'

most of MAH contracts have rise abd fall provisions, even more so the alliance partner contracts.
This insulates MAH's margins to a significant degree

MAH Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 29.5¢		Change 0.005(1.72%)		Mkt cap ! $635.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
29.0¢	29.5¢	28.5¢	$1.289M	4.432M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	209683	29.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
29.5¢	1800655	3

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	186206	0.290
4	84908	0.285
9	255613	0.280
8	200687	0.275
13	119356	0.270

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.295	1800655	3
0.300	759607	27
0.305	312960	2
0.310	226967	5
0.315	5000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 18/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

MAH (ASX) Chart

'any slight change in costs' most of MAH contracts have rise abd...

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'any slight change in costs' most of MAH contracts have rise abd...

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