Looks like its almost time to revisit this as inflation and interest rates haven't gone the way that the market consensus expected. Rates didn't peak where many thought they would and it looks like rates will be higher for longer than most though 3 months back, particularly in the key US market where most of the MI comes from. This could provide some additional upside in FY24 due to the remaining unhedged balances (49% ish I think from memory).
Additionally as flagged above Labor have started meddling with the RBA. If this results in a weaker response to the inflation problem then the AUD could go into reverse providing a tailwind to the stock price which for most of us here is denominated in AUD.
Remembering again that CPU reports in USD and its forecasts are all in USD so any exchange rate benefit is unlikely to be reported as an upgrade. This doesn't change the underlying fact that any higher USD profit converted to AUD at a more beneficial rate (for AU shareholders) could see some upside. The market is likely anticipating this as reflected in the 20%+ bounce since the lows after the last announcement on the subject.
Preliminary results due soon. Will be interesting.
CPU Price at posting:
$25.07 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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