re: Ann: Macquarie Australia Conference Prese...
Navitas (NVT) $5.90
WHEN you're a stock priced for growth, the market will take a dim view of any hiccough. Hence the education provider's 10 per cent selloff on Monday's poorly disguised profit warning.
The EBITDA forecast of $138m-$148m for the current year represents 10 per cent year-on-year growth at the midpoint, but it was up to 10 per cent shy of consensus expectations of $154m.The downgrade comes as Navitas recovers from Canberra's crackdown on visa chasers and dodgy vocational courses.
Streamlined visa rules for approved students were implemented by the former government and, yesterday, new Education Minister Christopher Pyne announced further simplified and concessional measures.
These are unlikely to benefit Navitas directly, but the Coalition understands the need to protect the international student cash cow. More encouraging is Navitas's third-semester enrolment growth for its offshore courses.
Navitas's overall northern hemisphere admissions are up 25 per cent with US enrolments climbing 45 per cent.
Still, local admissions count for 60 per cent of the total so the stat to watch is third-semester enrolments for the Australian colleges, to be released in late November.
With scholarly application, we rated Navitas a hold at $5.99 on July 31 and see no reason to budge.
