Hi paolo,
very happy to hear that you are in the money again on your re-entry in to ORE, but give credit to your own good judgement rather than any thoughts I might have contributed. And I gather that you have been in AGY and would have enjoyed a spectacular run there - well done.
This is maybe not the right place to discuss AGY but some comparisons between AGY and ORE are probably legitimate here.
Tenements - Olaroz vs Rincon
ORE 63,000 ha** at salar nucleus and margins - largely contiguous
AGY 2,346 ha at salar margin - not contiguous
**per NI43-101 - a few ups and down since then
Brine chemistry
ORE 690 mg/l Li, Mg/Li = 2.4 (low is good)
AGY 350 to 400 mg/l Li, Mg/Li =8.6 (assuming similar to Enirgi)
Lower Li grade at Rincon - approx half.
Low Mg/Li to is lower cost for conventional processing routes - maybe not an issue for the process route at Rincon?
JORC
ORE - 6.4m t LCE with exploration target at depth
AGY - expected later this year ?
Much smaller tenement area, lower grade brine, and probably shallower depth suggest a somewhat smaller resource at Rincon
Project ownership
ORE 66.5%
AGY currently earning 50%, but can earn up to 90%
Partners
ORE - Toyota Tsusho, JEMSE - both at project level
AGY - Ekeko, (local govt** TBA?) - at project level + Qianyun on AGY share register
**AGY will inevitably have a government partner if/when they go to commercial production, but at what %?
Development stage
ORE - producing 12,000 tpa; final stages of ramp up toward 17,500 tpa; cash flow positive; expansion projects coming
AGY - pilot plant stage 500 tpa; next stage is 1500 tpa
Expansion Path
ORE - multiple expansions feasible at Olaroz; Cauchari brine available from exploration vehicle AAL
AGY - various small tenements in Argentina; partnering with Qianyun for possible acquisitions in China
IP
ORE - own process
AGY - process being developed by Pablo Alluralde
A lot is being made of the AGY process and its potential value at Qinghai.
If it works, maybe it has great value, but does it work?
And who owns the technology - AGY or PA ?
It seems there must be a lot of confidence in this IP to support the current market cap
Market cap @ 30/9/2017
ORE 942.9 m
AGY 247.7 m
Those market caps are a lot closer than I would have expected on the resource and stage of development, and potential growth. But is ORE undervalued or AGY overvalued, or a bit of both? I'll certainly point to upside in ORE....
I'm not looking for WW3 with the AGY crowd. I have to be honest - I looked at AGY at around 0.02 and concluded there was not a lot of value there, but have since seen the share price go to 0.31. I turned my nose up at a 15 bagger - more fool me. Every bit of valuation logic says ORE to me for the long run, but in the short term you can't argue with a great traders run. The big question is where does it go from here? (and that is a question best discussed on the AGY threads)
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