We might mentally link them as humans but each transaction is independent. Buying back shares to reverse dilution is not worthwhile if the share buyback generates a worse return than alternative uses of the money. In that scenario we're better off allowing the shares on issue to expand and to focus on using the money to increase earnings so that EPS goes up despite the dilution.
My point is that MQG should be deploying capital wherever it gets the best return and if the 1H24 earnings is the "new normal" then, at EPS of ~$3.70 for a ~$160 share, MQG buying its own shares is getting a ~4.6%p.a. return, which is similar to or slightly worse than cash and well below MQG's historic RoE.
Our hope is obviously that 1H24 was a one-off low and earnings will rebound. Given the buyback buys future earnings not past earnings, that would change the return profile.
MQG Price at posting:
$160.35 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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