Like everyone here, I am fascinated by what the 30Sep23 KAR Cash...

Like everyone here, I am fascinated by what the 30Sep23 KAR Cash at Bank will be ... when they bring out the Oct23 Quarterly Report.

We see that quarterly production came in at 2,845,774.78 barrels.




We also see that the Brent PoO averaged ~$85 or more during that period. Also the BOD keep mentioning that KAR's sweet sweet crude achieves a higher price than the official Brent.




So we must have achieved sales revenue of almost US$242m. Thats over US$960m extrapolated for the year.

So given Mr P's spreadsheet analysis, we must be about to declare results that will (more than) support the EPS of 80cps.




The NPAT shown is 314,217. Add back the non cash items off 155,835 and 96,360 gives 566,412.

Cash at Bank 30Jun23 was US$73m. Add 141,603m (566,412/4) gives cash at Bank 30Sep23 of US$141,676m.

Given an exchange rate of 63c, converts to ~A$225m.

Too simplistic?


Given EPS of A$0.80 and a general P/E for Oil Producers of 4x to 6x EPS. Can we conclude that the KAR SP should be in the range of A$3.20 to $4.80 when results are released late Oct23?

The world major oilers have P/Es around the 8x, 9x or 10x mark.