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LNG forum Post Of the Year 2018 winner. Period.

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Bortgm

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25/01/18

06:37

Post #: 30551092
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Originally posted by jkerr7999 ↑

To bring attention to the domino effect GV has talked about, once that 1st anchor offtake is signed, i'm going to highlight the dates when SPAs were signed by US projects:

Sabine Pass:

3.5mt BG (now Shell) 26 Oct 2011f
3.5mt Fenosa 21 Nov 2011
3.5mt Gail 11 Dec 2011
3.5mt Kogas 30 Jan 2012
2mt BG 1 Feb 2012
2mt Total 17 Dec 2012
1.75mt Centrica 25 Mar 2013

Corpus Christi:

.76mt Pertamina 4 Dec 2013
1.5mt Endesa 2 Apr 2014
.75mt Endesa 7 Apr 2014
.80mt Iberdrola 30 May 2014
1.5mt Fenosa 2 Jun 2014
.85mt Woodside 30 Jun 2014
.77mt EDF 17 Jul 2014
.60mt Chile 3 Aug 2015
.77mt EDF 21 Sep 2015
.90mt Engie 28 Oct 2015

Cameron:

1.2mt Tepco 7 Feb 2013
4mt Mitsubishi 16 May 2013
4mt Mitsui 16 May 2013
4mt GDF 16 May 2013
.4mt Pavillion 23 Sep 2014

Freeport:

4.4mt Osaka Gas 31 Jul 2012
4.4mt BP 11 Feb 2013
2.2mt Toshiba 9 Sept 2013
2.2mt SK 9 Sep 2013

Dominion Cove:

2.3mt Sumitomo 1 Apr 2013
2.3mt Gail 5 Dec 2014

There's a lot of stiff competition by worldwide projects jockeying for the limelight in front of buyers who are "sitting on the fence" poised to strike deals. Here's the comprehensive list of who we're battling against:

Fortuna 2.2mt - Has SPA with Gunvor for full capacity.
Woodfibre 2.1mt
PNG 1.5mt
Mauritania 2.5mt
Congo 1.2mt
Corpus Christi Train 3 4.5mt - Has SPA with EDP .77mt
Mozambique 12mt - Has SPA with PTT for 2.6mt. Has Govt approval. Needs 80% of 12mt capacity to get necessary funding.
Lake Charles 15mt - Could be the "wild card" to reach FID this year. Has full reg approval. Backed by Shell who could provide a substantial anchor offtake.

I believe the above are the front runners. Also in the running are the following but going to state reasons why i feel they are behind the leading pack:

Russia's Arctic 16.5mt - To be built in 3 stages... 5.5mt by 22/23 5.5mt by 24 5.5mt by 25. Novatek has stated that it intends to take FID in late 2019.

Russia's Baltic 10mt - On June 2017, Gazprom & Shell sign main terms of their joint venture agreement. Document outlines the principles for the functioning of the partnership, which will carry out design, financing, construction and operation of the LNG plant in the Leningrad region. So the project is not ready to go.

Cameron 10mt Trains 4 & 5 - Has project delays with Trains 1-3 which are expected to come online in early to late 2019. It also hasn't been granted full regulatory approval, having pre-filed with FERC on March 4 2015, with precedent indicating 14-17 quarters till issuance of NFTA .

Sabine Pass 4.5mt Train 6 - Cheniere is focusing on filling Corpus Christi Train 3.

Delfin 13mt - Will have an initial start up capacity of 9mt. Will jointly develope with Golar. Has a $1.5 Billion commitment from KDB Korea but Delfin founder and Chief Executive Officer Frederick Jones has stated that the company is tapping Chinese Banks to help fund the $8 Billion project. " We'd like to make an FID this year but we have to be realistic. The numbers don't add up... if we could see crude oil stay in the $55-$60 range for a sustainable period of time, and start creeping into the higher 60s, then LNG will find its level adequate for the whole industry". Unsure if EPC contract has been awarded.

Goldboro 10mt - Has 5mt SPA with Eon but must solve the supply riddle. Well behind in regulatory process.

Tellurian 26mt - Earliest FID late 2019 or mid 2020 due to the completion of the regulatory process.

Venture Global 10mt - Has a 1mt SPA with Edison. FERC approved pre-file Sept 2015 with precedent indicating 9-12 quarters till issuance of NFTA. Should gain full approval in 2018.

Rio Grande 27mt - Will have an initial start up capacity of 9mt. FERC approved pre-file May 2016 with precedent indicating 9-12 quarters till issuance of NFTA. Should gain full approval by late 2018 or mid 2019.

Far East 5.4mt - Western sanctions and funding constraints are delaying the project from reaching FID.

Golden Pass 15.6mt - Backed by Exxon & Qatar. Has full regulatory approval. Are "considering" converting their current import terminal into an export facility (as of Dec 17').

As of 13th of Jan 18' our team were in Asia, they will be returning to Houston for a week then heading straight back to Asia early Feb! From this account, GV & Co are putting in the hard yards... which is expected!! Time is ticking. And as JB stated at the Nov 2017 AGM presentation, "One of the things thats really resonated with customers when we've talked to them recently is the de-risking of the projects. As they are looking at the projects that are available in the world to pick up LNG from, its hard to, in fact its impossible to point to one thats as ready to go as our project. We have the entire design of the Magnolia project basically in a box ready to go. There's no other LNG plants in the world thats at this stage of readiness". I certainly agree... very slim pickings of projects can lay claim to being in our position!

Once that first substantial BTA is signed, the heavens will open up!

Let us pray!

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LNG forum Post Of the Year 2018 winner. Period.

LNG Price at posting: 64.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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