simplified I would expect dilution to 1billion shares by time of 2026 (which we hope would be construction)
the base cases beyond asset backing vary massively without cost metrics and carbon credits
this is only rough off of previous costing numbers which would be very conservative, based on 1Mt of pig iron as the bare minimum per year
1. base case $1 per share (2026) asset backed SP 30x investment
2. base case with production $2.40 per share (2026) based on 500/t pig + pci $200/t 68x investment
3. mid case with production $3.20 per share based on $600-800/t pig iron $250/t pci +80x investment
4. bull case with production $5.00+ $200/t 65% FE, $800/t pig, 250+ pci +166x investment
again this is definitely not anywhere near proper spreadsheet material until we have more information from further studies.
you would expect in the bull scenario they could produce 500,000 tonnes of FE 65% if the time was opportune without disruption to pig iron feed flow. none of these estimates add in the value saving of carbon credits either.
also I might add, that this is if everything goes to plan and timeline, and we see production roll out 2026 in a favourable market environment, which I do think is great timing, as I have marked until 2025 having higher than usual market volatility.
this is my subjective opinion, like to hear what others have the value being around that time.
very hard for me to give any real value before then and until we get some more information.
MGU Price at posting:
3.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
