You can look at various sources, woodmac, geoscience australia, etc. (Gas | Geoscience Australia) and find various estimates of 2P and 2C for east coast targeted gas. WIll fluctuate year to year with macro factors but 20-35kPJ 2P and probably the same range for 2C for unconventional gas for the east coast market is in the usual range that various sources report/estimate over the last few years. A fair bit higher when you add in the conventional gas too. In any case, Comet's share of all this, 200 PJ odd, is a very very small piece of the pie. I am not saying it is not valuable, not at all, I have always said that can be a nice, but little project.
"mahalo plugs the east coast gas supply / demand gap" you're funny. Talk about misleading investors... Please do show us all how Comet's 200PJs of 2P reserves spread over a 30 year project produciton life plugs the gap Be optimistic and make it 500PJ, won't make a difference to fill the gap (noting that there is hidden demand from an LNG plant not operating at capacity on top of domestic market requirements) lol
The Taroom Trough is really the only game changer left for the east coast and it is nowhere near proven yet.
For me, Comet's share of the project isnt worth a whole lot more than their current market cap. Hence it is hard to see a takeover here as the buyer will be taking on all the execution risk for limited upside. I'd buy in here if it drops to the low teens or if they ever offer a smallish CR to sophs in the low teens some time in future. Not sure at what point they'll need more funds if they need to start paying their share for LLIs or pre-development costs in the event that there's no takeover here. For the sake of shareholders, I hope management have their ducks in line if this eventuates. Debt could even be a better option if the project is as profitable as people here think.
No need to disclose details like that and I would never expect them to. But some scoping study level numbers of CAPEX and NPV would be nice to see for investors.
Does it matter what I do in the industry? I am just sharing an opinion to generate discussion here and get people thinking a little bit beyond mindless hype. I'm not here to tell people to buy or sell shares. I'm a buyer of this stock, but at lower levels than here. Maybe I pump gas down at your local Shell. Everyone needs to do their own research.
COI Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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