RED 1.83% 41.8¢ red 5 limited

Ann: Maiden 1.45Moz open pit Ore Reserve for King of the Hills, page-25

  1. 2,343 Posts.
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    The number of shares on issue is (relatively)easily solved by a 3 or 4 for 1 consolidation. North American institutions used to hate "penny stocks" and a share consolidation would have been looked at very favourably. Hence instead of 1200m there would 300 or 400m shares. But nowadays, they are not worried about such appearances and sensible companies have better things to do.
    Also, in the event of M&A, the number of shares would be altered by a share swap, and the merged entity would have a new name & upmarket profile.
    The new stated reserve of 1.49m oz, is likely to be expanded before years end due to "exceptional potential" that projected additional drilling will lead to further upgrades and additional reserves from adjoining satellite resources.
    If one looks at Saracen latest FY report, KOTH size and potential is greater than Thunderbox (open pit and UG combined) and hence ERA and other estimates of RED's MC potential of >$1 billion is not unreasonable. Whether SAR has the NST capability and desire to expand remains to be seen. If it does, then KOTH would seem a natural fit IMHO. It could spin out Darlot and Siana as done previously ..... plenty of wannabes looking for a processing solution for their stranded assets IMO.
    Gazzajohn speculation about a "non takeover clause" is not correct. SAR took a 10% blocking stake to help the venture get established, but after the 12 months escrow period passed, SAR can sell its shares, as did Gold Fields. Also, moneys owed too SAR has (like with GF) been fully repaid. In 2017, SAR were shedding a 'sub par' asset, to concentrate on their 'high quality' assets, and probably are somewhat surprised at the pace and extent of KOTH reserves expansion, and the progress to commercialisation of them.
    RED can expect further analyst upgrades post D&D, after more analysts visit KOTH and Darlot. While KOTH is capturing all the attention, Darlot is not on the back burner on low heat. The company fully intends to continue expanding Darlot's resources, so it like KOTH can be a 'standalone asset'.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1667/1667787-7aac61938a1b7183b1478462117d7682.jpg

 
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