The market is valuing SRK on assumption of Iron Ore Price less than $100/t . Hard to predict where it will go, but with the recent drops in price, it will make it harder for them to get debt funding to start up Paulsens. It starts becoming a marginal project if there are sustained prices below $100/t, and less cashflow from Peru operations to support funding will make it harder still. If Iron ore price is not above $120/t and somewhat stable by the time an investment decision is required, I do not see it getting across the line.
Whilst I had strong hope for Strike, management has really let us down with the pace that Paulsens has progressed. Looking back at the Feasibility study from October last year, the following points really highlight how they have performed against their promises;
- Targeting first ore production during the first half of 2021 with the mining approvals process well underway.
- Offtake and funding discussions well advanced.
Based on current outlook, will be lucky to be mining this calendar year, and still nothing on offtake and funding agreements which were supposedly "well advanced" nearly a year ago.
Hard to predict the iron ore price, but my fear is we have missed the boat and will likely not see significant returns (most probably from Peru) till the next Iron Ore cycle.
The good times with Iron ore were never going to be forever, and management has failed in capitalising on the peaks (would have thought they would learn from the last iron ore boom which they missed also).
Full disclosure - I still hold a small free-carry parcel
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