Ann: Maiden Kanmantoo UG Reserve and 96% Increase in Resource, page-29

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ducky1982

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19/10/24

13:16

Post #: 76201180
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Originally posted by Bayhunter: ↑

This is a conservative and professionally produced report.

When I first saw the title " and 96% Increased in Resource" I thought damm, couldn't they not find a little more to make an exciting, eye catching headline like "and Doubled the Resource" I soon pleasantly realised Bob is not going for eye catching headlines but rather keeping it professional, with the simple bottom line figures. The 2024 MRE is actually 175% more than the 2022 MRE, I follow a few explorers/developers that would surely have led with the line "and 175% increase in MRE" I am reassured we have a professional in charge at HGO and not a salesman.

a few notes:
the MRE has a cut off grade of 0.4% but the reserve uses a more conservative 0.6% (page 33)
all zones are open to depth and along strike (page 22)
the cut off parameters for the MRE are 0.4% Cu with 4.21 USD/lb and FX 0.65 (page 26)
the quoted NPV is incorrect or at the very least using unrealistic parameters IMO (page 38)

I thought we would have done a lot more exploration drilling but at least the drilling has concentrated on the Kavanagh and Nugent area and then spitfire with a little in Emily Star, In line with the current mine plan for underground development and not going off chasing rainbows. It is also worth noting this resource update only includes drill results within proximity of the planned underground development hence I am sure there are drill holes that have been drilled and results "not available" yet (the deeps)

Priority number one is filling the mill and I am sure we have two more exciting announcements ahead, the quarterly and then an updated mine plan. Hopefully by February we will be operating at 3.5 mtpa and have two more drills dedicated to exploration drilling in order to double the resource again in 12 months time.

In terms of NPV, our mine plan operating at 1.4 mtpa has a NPV8 of $165m as at Feb 2023, we now have double the resource within economic reach of the existing mine plan and can double the throughput of the existing plant, the forward looking USD copper price and FX will keep our margins within the range of the Feb 2023 parameters hence our current NPV8 has got to be closer to $380m, I'm running with a missing zero at the end of the figure quoted in the resource update.

Maybe with the updated mine plan we may get an Updated Updated Economic Assessment? Either way with a market cap of only $140m and China due to give an announcement on details of their construction stimulus today, I look forward to the copper bears getting their paws trod on and HGO being valued closer to its NPV8, being a producer.

GLTAH and I reconfirm my sentiment of buy

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Bayhunter, if I was able to give out an award for best HGO post in 2024, it would be the one you just posted. My sentiments agree with yours.

In addition, on page one of the report Bob states “Our focus continues to be on reliable delivery, building cash, and earning the right to grow. We remain on track in these areas.” I interpret this to read that we can look forward to a solid quarterly report.

Slow and steady wins the race.

HGO Price at posting: 6.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Maiden Kanmantoo UG Reserve and 96% Increase in Resource, page-29

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