Ann: Maiden Resource Estimates Offshore Angola, page-11

Ran this query thru

"Using industry norms of pe what whould such a resource if developed equate to as share price

ChatGPT said:

Great question — estimating a share price impact based on contingent resource value involves a few key steps, using industry norms such as P/E multiples and adjusting for development stage, costs, and dilution. Let’s walk through a realistic, high-level valuation-to-share price estimate for Red Sky.

Assumptions & Inputs

Here’s what we’ll use as a base case:

	Variable	Assumption
1	Red Sky's Resource Value (2C)	AUD $214.2 million (from previous table)
2	Development Cost / CapEx	AUD $80 million (example assumption)
3	Net Value After Costs (NPV)	AUD $134.2 million (214.2 - 80)
4	P/E Ratio (Industry Norm)	8× to 12× (for mid-cap E&P companies)
5	Shares on Issue	6 billion (example – confirm for accuracy)
6	Probability of Development	60% (to risk-adjust the valuation)

Calculation Steps

1. Risk-Adjusted Net Value

$$\text{Risked NPV}=134.2M\times 0.60=\text{AUD}80.52M$$

2. Earnings Estimate (simplified)

Let’s say the project generates AUD $10–15M annual profit post-tax. Applying a P/E multiple of 10x:

$$\text{Implied Market Cap Increase}=10M\times 10=\text{AUD}100M$$

3. Impact on Share Price

Share Price Increase=100M6B shares=AUD 0.0167(or1.67cents)\text{Share Price Increase} = \frac{100M}{6B \text{ shares}} = \text{AUD } 0.0167 (or 1.67 cents)Share Price Increase=6B shares100M=AUD 0.0167(or1.67cents)

Estimated Share Price Range (Post-Development)

	Scenario	Implied Market Cap Gain	Per Share Value
1	Conservative (Low)	AUD 80M	1.33 cents
2	Base Case (Mid)	AUD 100M	1.67 cents
3	Upside (High Profit)	AUD 150M	2.50 cents