Ann: Maiden Resource Estimates Offshore Angola, page-16

"Using your model given you've attributed a 60% risk, how does that change once the risk is removed and the production is underway?"

ChatGPT said:

Great follow-up — and this is where things get really interesting from a valuation perspective.

When a project moves from contingent resources to production, several key risks drop off:

• Geological/commercial risk → ✅ proven reserves and flow

• Development risk → ✅ infrastructure in place

• Funding risk → ✅ CapEx is sunk

• Regulatory risk → ✅ permits likely secured

✅ Removing the Risk Factor (60% → 100%)

In the earlier model, we risk-adjusted the NPV:

$$\text{Risked NPV}=\text{Unrisked NPV}\times \text{Probability of Development}$$

We used a 60% probability, so:

$$\text{80.52M}=134.2M\times 0.60$$

Once production begins, that probability becomes 100% (or very close), meaning:

$$\text{Unrisked NPV becomes full value}=\text{AUD}134.2M$$

Impact on Share Price Estimate

Let’s plug the new number into the model.

Previous base case (with 60% risk):

• Risked NPV = AUD 80.52M

• Share price impact ≈ 1.33 cents

Post-production (100% certainty):

• Full NPV = AUD 134.2M

• Share price impact:

  134.2M6B=2.24 cents per share\frac{134.2M}{6B} = \text{2.24 cents per share}6B134.2M=2.24 cents per share

Updated Estimated Share Price Range (Post-Production)

	Scenario	Market Cap Gain	Per Share Value (6B shares)
1	Conservative Profit	AUD 100M	1.67 cents
2	Full NPV (no risk)	AUD 134.2M	2.24 cents
3	Higher Profit/Upside	AUD 150M+	2.50 cents or more