Yes I agree. As you know I believe the share price is heavily undervaluing the future cashflows. The most plausible explanation is that the market requires hard evidence that all is in order and the project is actually the cash cow it appears to be on paper.
To be frank the last announcement regarding the maiden shipment was not so relevant (given the quantities shipped), other than in provided a statement that ramp-up "... is progressing very well...", and also in demonstrating that offtake partners are still on-board.
Actual ramp-up statistics are a primary piece of information to further solidify the fact that the project is attractively economics, and these statistics will start being released starting from the next quarterly (due anytime now).
Of significance past this point will be announcement of the first full size shipments and product price achieved, leafing to first cash inflows shortly after and first debt pay down.
it will also be useful to get these distracting claims of inappropriate behaviour off the table.
I personally have little doubt that a small group of traditional landowners are doing their best to paint inaccurate pictures with the aim of becoming a fly in the ointment and then demanding a hand out to stop being disruptive.
SFX management didn't succumb to this sort of behaviour during native title negotiations and instead followed procedural doctrine to have an external ruling made based on the facts. It appears that this is what is now happening again.
According to the most recent NIT articles, the decision has been handed over to Aboriginal Affairs Minister, Tony Buti. This only happens if the parties don't agree on an outcome between themselves, and in my mind the only reason that KMS would fail to do this, is if the other side is being unreasonable. KMS would have willingly offered any solution that they believe an objectively informed independent party will call for.
Having said all this, even attractive production numbers and first full size shipment may still show muted share price effects. However, anyone holding SFX as a real investment will understand that their investment is just getting stronger and stronger with each of these progressions, and eventually a market rerate will happen.
It feels almost unfathomable to me that I was happily buying SFX at 40c in 2020 after Yansteel first announced their intention to become a 50% JV partner at a buy-in price of 37.5c, and that after a very long list, of very significant de-risking events, that one can still buy an SFX share today for 58c.
incidentally, for anyone thinking, I still feel that paying 40c back in 2020 when Yansteel entered the picture was a fair price for me to pay.
I still feel that at this discount rate, SFX is a prime takeover target. In this scenario, anyone sitting on the sidelines will have to be satisfied with being a spectator.
All the best SFXers.
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