Originally posted by Antietam:
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An excellent recap, Sumit. My only quibble is to question whether - despite the post CR improvement - the "brakes are off the share price" quite yet. It was obvious for some time prior to the CR that the SP was being beaten down so HP could top up at a bargain price. IMO it was only the usual downramping suspects - NOT the market - who were calling RXL a turd. Quite the contrary in fact. The ailing manipulated SP and the daily course of trading indicated how intent the "money big boys" were on obtaining bundles of dirt-cheap shares. (Seen it before with other promising stocks, no doubt will see it again). Anyway, now RXL's future is looking so promising, I suspect we'll continue to see "restrained" SP progress while brokers try to load their clients up as cheaply as possible before the next bunch of drill results continue to make the downrampers eat their words. Just my opinion. DYOR and GLTAH old and new.
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Of course, the brakes are not fully off the share price.
That would be heretical while the key players have not completed building their stakes.
The share price rise next year up to the DFS and FID will be higher, but gains will be limited, in my opinion.
Rox has signaled the near-future share price in the analyst report (that Rox had a lot of input into).
It’s the 27-cent target.
Conveniently, that hits the options price at 25 cps, expiring in November 2025.
Hawke’s Point will grow its stake by taking up its options, but it will want to get more, 30%+, around the time of FID.
The brakes will be fully off when Hawke’s Point lifts to its target ownership, in my opinion.
The following is speculative. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
There is an impermanence about the Rox team that suggests M&A action soon.
Wilding doesn’t look like he will be in the job long-term.
He is the first Rox CEO to not be on the board.
CEOs don’t have to be on boards, but they usually want to be, and it is unusual to turn down an offer to be on the board.
CEOs in for the long haul want to be decision-makers.
Nathan Stoitis runs his own company, and he is at Rox to do a job.
That’s it. When the job is complete, he will leave.
Chris Hunt was the long-term CFO right through the tough times.
Just before Xmas, as Rox finally gets to its feet, he’s out the door with no notice and not even a handover.
Wilding was forced, at short notice, to recruit an old mate to cover the position.
It was an abrupt exit, uncharacteristic of Hunt, who has been 100% dedicated to the company for years.
A lot of corporate knowledge and relationship history went with him.
But Chris Hunt is not on the free share’s gravy train, so unlike the others, he had nothing to gain from an M&A and everything to lose.
Did he discover that Rox soon won’t need a CFO?
My opinion
(20min delay)