What were you presenting an NPV of SOI basis and a random figure suggesting it fair value "per share". Just cooked accounting IMHO. A net present value has the definition in it's name that it's net present value and thus has no meaning if applied to a SOI and projected as the price in 3years time where by default is no longer the "present"/
No I don't and I have been very vocal and suggested previous that IXR was close to fair value prior to the SS release given it's current development. In fact i defended many posts to holder here, which was suggesting my calcs were conservative and fair too low. which turned out to be incorrect and it was in fact lower than i had calculated.
10c would be the low side given the PE ratio is conservative and 60% ownership is also the minimum.
The upside would be 100% which is 16c and apply current REO producer PE ratio which is 30-40. = 56c
The would likely be more dilution via the debt equity funding arrangement so accept that the higher valuation in Y1 of production probably not 56c. assuming 30% dilution to those would be 40c.
How does that correlate to a fair value today is anyone's guess but the markets decides. I personally think that 10c-40c would be a probable range in near term production which again correlates to my 5-10 upside when in production. Obviously that's Y1 at 800tpa. At 4000tpa the revenue or EPS is 5 times higher.
My view has been post SS that 15% of value is fair and people were free to either use a PE ratio for that or a discounted FCF.
People will need/can apply their own P/E ratio's and additionally their own % of project valuation. lastly people will need to decide whether the factor IXR off its Y1 production profile or Y7 as this is 4 times as large thus the NPV is four times larger.
here is my post Post #:
49682372 from a 4 months back where i gave those views.
Post #:
49371250"2.5mtpa - (year 1 of production)
60M AUD profit p/a. So P/E ratio of 10-20 is 600M to 1200M in Y1 of production.
Take 60% ownership and we're at 360M to 720M valuation in Y1.IXR is at stage 1 thus IMO around 15% is fair valuation of NPV (off PE valuation model).
i.e. 15% of 360m-600m = 54M-108M10mtpa - (year 7 of production)
240M AUD profit p/a. So P/E ratio of 10-20 is 2.4bn to 4.8bn in Y7 of production.
Take 60% ownership and we're at 1.4bn to 2.8bn valuation in Y7.
IXR is at stage 1 thus IMO around 15% is fair valuation of NPV (off PE valuation model).
i.e. 15% of 1.4bn-2.8bn = 216M-432MSo in my view IXR should be valued between 54M-432M at current junction."Note that my annualised profit margin of 60M in Y1 and 240M AUD in Y7 are actually very close to what the SS released and my fair value incorporates both a discount for project development aswell as the 60% ownership.
Anything else?
(20min delay)