Good work, I have managed to replicate the SS NPV fairly accurately using the projected tonnages to get profit p/a. Less out the capital incurrence in each year. Similar to what you have done here. By interested to see you re-run it to incorporate the extra 16Y mine life and hear what you're outputs are.
View attachment 3144197View attachment 3144200Essentially take the revenue from the top graph of top image multiply by profit margin then deduct capital incurred to get the final revenue. You'll note that in the years the capital is incurred in both Y2 and Y4 moves net profit to close to 0 in those years.
Upfront capital is Y0 for 90m. then M2 in Y2 M3 in Y4 M4 in Y6 and M5 in Y9. Each module adds approximately 35M post tax/debt revenue
Essentially annualised profits look like
Y1 - 35M
Y2 - 0
Y3 - 70M
Y4 - 0
Y5 - 105M
Y6 - 65M
Y7 - 140M
Y8 - 140M
Y9 - 100M
Y10 - 175M
Y11 - 175M
I landed at 429M with my inputs for NPV.
For information purposes i've extrapolated out the mine life for the full 315mT. This is 16Y extra mine life as per SS indicated.
If you add another 4 years of production the NPV moves to 677M USD - LOM 15Y
If you add another 9 years of production the NPV moves to 897M USD - LOM 20Y
If you add another 16 years of production the NPV moves to 1093M USD - LOM 27Y
This is why many had ballparked a 1bn NPV figure. I don't think many had realised the ASX wanted 70/30 split for indicated inferred resource. That was also fresh news to me.
For those that aren't able to build an NPV via excel you can use an archaic calculator online.
https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculatorSimply plug in the figures for yourself and use whatever number you feel appropriate but it's very evident that simply inputting the full 315mT extending the mine life boosts the NPV. If you plug the same figures into and calc the IRR you'll also land fairly close.
Comments around needing more throughput to boost NPV is factually incorrect. Your annualised profits don't change but an extra 16Y of 175M USD ebitda does impact the discounted FCF. Anyone who knows how to calculate them or wants to use the online calculator can verify that themselves.
Whilst the NPV goes up by 2.5 times. It's really the LoM EBITDA that goes up substantially. As explain you print 175m USD for an extra 16Y by incorporating this into the figures. Yes this is all the ASX will allow us to display now, but it is certainly not reflective of the inevitable future. IMO.
SF2TH
(20min delay)