Tthanks champ! Means a lot coming from the leading IXR authority on HC.
To summarise for everyone - the analysis in the table shows that we're potentially in for an ~85% annualised gain on the current share price if we include all the resources and move to a 70% stake in the project (I assume 70% rather than 60%, because 60% is what we get after the BFS is finished, and I assume we'll be able to get at least 10% more for chipping in A$40m of equity to develop the project)
If we're able to move to 100% ownership (IXR has first option over the remaining 40%), then we're looking at an ~115% annualised gain on the current share price (could be overly optimistic since I didn't factor in an acquisition price for the remaining stake - this will really depend on the price they pay for it / what ownership structure IXR is comfortable with)
Risks to be aware of:
- Rare earth pricing downside
- Can't get things built and operational on time
- Bad luck on drilling and confirming resources
- Can't find financing
- Ugandans backflipping on agreed deal terms
- Other political, economic, operational risks
Comments and observations welcome!
I for one will be holding and looking to buy at current levels and below.
DYOR!
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- Ann: Makuutu Rare Earths Project Scoping Study
Ann: Makuutu Rare Earths Project Scoping Study, page-223
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