I have been trading MP Puts for about 18 months. I have posted this many times. I may sell my puts soon and go neutral. My opinion is the entire green sector from miners to car manufactures is way overpriced. Has been for several years and that is why a recession will drop them much more than other stocks.
GF apparently cannot find an SAR or AR that will stand up to close analysis would you like to pick one? Or any one else on this board.
I mean you have over 20 to chose from.
JMO the 2022 AR is the best, The 2023 SAR and AR will not be nearly as good.
August 31 SP 8.88 x shares outstanding 902,41 is a market Cap of 8.03 B Income 541M 803B /0.541B =14.8 now this is very good for an average stock in an average Sector now for a hot stock in a hot sector 25 to 30 would be ok. For a very hot stock in a very how sector 40~ 60 would even be OK this was the case for Lynas for last several years but not to day. those days are gone for a few years.
Revenue this is just over one to one which is fine.
Last is book value this is a problem. if you look at page 57 of AR it is 1.645B. Yet market Cap is 8 B If someone had a car or coin you realy wanted would you pay 5 X more for it than it was appraised for? Yes book value is the least looked of the three, but it is looked at a lot more during a recession. I will look at 2023 Q2 qnd SAR after the Q1 report comes out which will be better than Q4 but Q2 and SAR will be down a lot because of NdPR price changes. I will even use the full next rate of 1800 tons NdPr /Q which they have never come close to.
You are correct Demand is souring but supply is going up much faster. That is the rest of the story and why prices are dropping the way they are. When will dreamers look at both sides of the story. How do you and your article explain Prices going from 1095 on Friday FEB 25 to 735 Friday Sept 2 just a small 33 % fall. 2.3% a week. now that is over 6 months what is even more alarming is 1 July 927 last Friday 735, a 21% drop in two months. 3.65% a week The last two weeks it fell 8.5% , 4,25 % per week so it is accelerating. Please note all the info in your article is before July 1 I think you need to think about that. Also your article was written on September 2, Do you not think if the author was honest and unbiased some mention of how much prices had fallen since June 30 to SEPT 2 should have been made?
Here are a couple of articles I listen to a little more.
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101931712/weekly-review-terminal-demand-failed-to-improve-significantly-with-downstream-players-restocking-only-on-dipshttps://news.metal.com/newscontent/101923478/how-will-constantly-rising-supply-affect-the-already-falling-rare-earth-prices
(20min delay)