LYC 1.65% $6.15 lynas rare earths limited

Ann: Malaysian Operating Licence Renewed, page-72

  1. 485 Posts.
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    Quite honestly, I dont see a dividend in the future. At least not for 5+ years. Perhaps even longer.

    For the company to be "bullet proof" and in a position to pay a dividend, a few major milestones needs to be met.

    Firstly, the KAL project must be fully up and operational. And now, after this most recent Malaysian Political Kabuki, a definitive legal court case must be won to preserve, and defend the business freedom to operate in a fair but regulated enviornment. All good businesses using various levels of processing, minig, chemical introduction and extraction, etc. should have a level of regulatory oversight. This also applies to very business from Airlines to Banks. Fairly handed government oversight is essential.

    In 3-4 years (2026-2027), we ahould see the opening of a LYC REE facility in the USA. This will take a huge amount of capital, but it is needed to anchor LYC as a true international RE company. Unlike some on this board, I am not an "purist" advocate of using all of our own raw mined minerals (Mt. Weld) to process in the USA. It could be a much wiser move to intice more regional miners (Canada for example) to supply a LYC, USA RE facility with 3rd party concentrate to process. This does two things. 1. it will allow other miners to taste the success and profit of mining RE without needing to burn their cash on down stream processing facilities, but more importantly, 2. allowing miners to process via LYC facilities may finally pave the way for breaking up of the Chinese monopoly on RE mining and processing. Until China is in a weakened position, a dividend is (IMO) off the table, as they can force a crash in RE prices, which will end a possbile LYC dividend about the same time as it is authorized.

    Addituonally, and this is seldom discussed, is the final leg which will quite possibly ensure a long term quarterly dividend by LYC. Utilizing mined RE, constructing a new facility and developing a suplly chain to Europe. Most effectively on, and from the African contitnent. LYC has untouched mining reserves in Africa. Capital investment, along with a stable mainly Western leaning nation to build a facility in Africa are key. I suspect a stable Commonwealth nation with ports and internal infastructure will be chosen.

    A growth plan of this scope will take LYC to around 2030. 7+ years. But at that time, with various regional miners selling their RE for processing at a LYC facility; using our own mining deposits, we are well positioned to supply the needs of Asia (Japan Korea and Indonesia, et. al.), develop the North American supply chain, while allowing other miners to benefit from the growing 40+ year demand for RE, and finially building a source of supply to Europe will ensure shareholders a stable successful business model, will affectively cut China down to size with their RE monopoly. Bringing stability to RE prices, improving the growing global supply chain, could turn LYC into a company with 20-30 Billion in annual revenue, throwing 6-9 Billion in free cash flow. From those funds, you may likely start to see a +$1.00 a year dividend.

    The last hurdle for LYC is achieve is the need for a larger more international Borse to exchange its shares on. IMO, that would be a full listing on the NASDAQ or the NYSE. That move alone will give LYC a 30% price lift, and price stability.

    I am not sure that I will be here for the dividend. Maybe my shares will be sold, or hopefully gifted in trust to my son. But I am convinced that this is road map for LYC. Given political issues, a more likely successful Coup here in the USA next time around, changes in technology, LYC will need to keep its cash position strong, until the above unfolds. But, for life to continue on this planet, IT WILL UNFOLD. And LYC will see 2030. I bring up the issue of the USA because their leader (A Saudi pawn), and lovers of Big Oil, will stop at nothing to drill and stiffle the retarding of Climate Change.

    For those looking for the big pay day, I see a BHP or another major miner buying us, but not until the USA facility is built, and a full listing on a major exchange i.e., NASDAQ. By then, our share price could well be north of $20.00 a share and a 40% potential premium for all outstanding shares is tendered. That a $28.00-30.00 per share payday. A long shot, perhaps? But a possibility by 2026-2027

    For ease, I am using AU$ in this hypothosis.

    Well friends... Its 3:25 am (PST) in California. Just a sleepless night for me. Hope i did not burden you all with spell errors. Was just airing my thoughts.

    GLTA

    J.
 
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