Just got this in an email ...Fri, 26 May at 9:41 amFriday, 26...

Just got this in an email ...Fri, 26 May at 9:41 am


Friday, 26 May 2023

LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) - UBS is conscious that the market has not fully factored in a lower outlook for rare earths pricing with the NdPr price down -35% in the year to date and spot trading at US$60/kg, leading to it lowering FY23/24 forecasts by -2/-20%.

Lynas Rare Earths has recently announced that the Malaysian government has varied its licence, with an extension to continue cracking and leaching until at least January 1 2024.

This is welcome news, UBS asserts, as it allows more time for the ramp up at Kalgoorlie. FY23 production estimates are largely unchanged while the broker increases FY24 estimates by 92%. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $8.60 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $1.18 If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.20. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of -41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.00. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of 18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources