I think what we are seeing lately, in terms of trading, are some holders getting impatient, reducing their holdings in the short term and perhaps chasing other opportunities, hoping to come back before the next bit of news / action. Can't blame them tbh, the market can be very fickle.
If I look at the volume of late, since the last large volume day on 18th oct, volume has been pretty light. Never a day that has traded more than 1% SOI so pretty light tbh. FYI 18th Oct was a 3% volume day when NWE announced a delay due to cementing issues (since put to bed!).
I always look at volume traded on any large rise or fall in the SP. It'll either get me excited or worried... and for NWE's trading lately... like I said, it's just some holders wanting to move capital to other more immediate opportunities - IMO.
The other factor to consider is Top 20. I always keep an eye on it... that is if the company regularly updates the register - thankfully NWE do. They just updated today as at 23rd Nov. From my observation - bugger all movement in the Top 20 for the past fortnight.
Top 20 movements:
- no 3 increase by 151k
- no 8 increase by 171k
- no 10 decreased by 6.8m - this is "CS fourth nominees" which I believe is the IB Credit Suisse trading account. As at 14th Sep to 6th Nov CS had increased their holdings by approx. 6m which they have since reduced... so looks to me they are just trading for $$
- no 11 increase by 800k
- no 14 increase by 596k
Note: CS fourth nominees has, from what I know, nothing to do with CS third nominees who is Regal Funds Mgt. For a moment I thought we had Regal on our register... which would make things interesting given they hold nearly 10% of WGO... our little neighbour down south.
So the above tells me the Top 20 as a whole is sitting tight... IMO waiting (patiently) for what I believe is true value to be realised. I am hoping that is north of 10c but lets see what happens when the flow test is completed. FWIW, if the Top 20 was not stable i.e. some serious selling going on, I would be re-evaluating my investment. If they don't have conviction to hold why would I? Also worth pointing out the oblivious that MIN is holding steady... until flow test anyway
And this brings me to the next SP catalyst. Most here will think it's crickets until the early Jan flow test. But I wouldn't be so sure. What if a left field offtake buyer came knocking and NWE just happened to lock in a very commercial (i.e. current high domestic WA gas price) GSA... that would ruffle some feathers... future "near term" income would change many a valuation model.
And I'll leave this little snippet from recent news...
“The once-mighty NWS is maturing and needs new resource to keep its five trains full. Third-party agreements have been struck with Waitsia (BPT) and Pluto. But these only provide a stopgap as we see spare capacity increasing to more than 8 mmtpa by 2030. A sizeable backfill development is needed to change this course.”
I wonder where in on-shore WA the NWS JV could (desperately) source some plentiful gas to backfill that massive LNG plant... hmmm... how about a recent north Perth Basin, soon to be confirmed, large multi-TCF gas find with potential leads for more multi-TCF gas finds...
Anyway, just some musings to keep some amused...
GLTA
