Kruiser, I would say there is a strong likelihood of interest from large fertiliser companies. Can you think of another phosphate developer with projects at BFS stage i.e. with production on the horizon, that can boast capex and opex as low as that at Kanzi and Cacata? I for one, cannot. Let us not forget the ridiculously undervalued nature of the stock at present. I understand this is something yourself and tradedemon have covered previously, but let us revisit it for boredom's sake using a conservative worst-case approach:
Cacata ($311m x 45% assuming 10% Angolan govt. stake) $140m Cabinda Generally $ - Kanzi ($626m x 35% assuming DRC govt. takes 30% of our stake) $219m Fundu Nzobe $ -
Total $359m Risked by 75% $269m
Risked Total $ 90m
Approx. 182m shares on issue post strategic partner appointment (by end of Q1 2013 but hopefully by Feb 2013). Therefore, fully diluted value of $90m/182m gives you 49.4c per share. Imagine what it would be if risk factor was less and DRC govt. stake was reduced (which the company is confident will be 10%, not the 35% thrown about in the media).
This is why we must remain confident, Kruiser. Yes, the stock price has performed poorly but so have a lot of small and micro caps of late. Not to mention, this stock is tightly held so small volumes are causing the price to fluctuate, as opposed to a mass dumping. The big players are still in there. Furthermore, although the capital raising was a disappointment, it was also unavoidable. If a deal can be negotiated in the near term, you would think on-market support will then arrive once it is known that cash is in the bank. This has been the problem all along, despite the massive potential of the projects. Apologies for the essay, but let us just hope that 2013 is going to be a big year for this company.
MNB Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
