I thoughts I'd have a closer look at the numbers from the AGM.
Each business unit seems to be growing nicely in its own way, including Hollow Bar, which is a sleeper product I think has a big future, so interesting to see that it is already generating $6m+ in revenue for FY and the Latrobe project is just kicking in.
Here are some rough thoughts on last year's numbers, with the HY forecast and what a full year forecast could look like.
FY23
Revenue - $59.6
EBITDA - $10.0
Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) - $4.1
HY forecast
EBITDA in the range of $6 - $7 million
NPAT in the range of $2.6 – $3.0 million
Remember this includes costs relating to Sharrow propeller development, so could have been stronger.
We also know that Gyro sales are currently $2m and I expect might get to $3.5m this half, but are going to be heavily weighted to the second half and exceed $10m for the FY, which should lead to a higher profit for this division in the second half, but that all relates to Strategic Marine and doesn't account for other orders we might get.
Given what we know and being conservative, you would have to expect that we get to something like the following:
Revenue estimate - $70m
EBITDA estimate - $14m
NPAT - $7m
This also likely leads to a healthier dividend for shareholders, firstly with a return to a strong interim dividend and a good uplift in the final dividend next September, potentially with some franking credits attached!!
I'm comfortable reaping the benefits of the Sharrow partnership next FY, where we should see a large increase in margins, as that product is going to be a gamechanger I expect for the propeller division that is already kicking goals!
(20min delay)