Thanks for taking the time to reply, this is excellent insight.
We're singing from the same hymn sheet on GCS' investment merits - i am now about as heavily invested in GCS as i feel comfortable being relative to the situation and quality of company. I just wish i had known a little more about GF when i started building my GCS stake in April this year - i'd basically assumed it was $80m * 10% * 50% = $4m EBIT business with little more to it, particularly given GCS acquired it for net cash in return for some management incentives and guarantees. Turning almost nil investment into ~$100m of value within 3 years would, if it eventuated, go down in the hall of fame for value-creating acquisitions.
As mentioned above, there have been a number of pleasant surprises for me relative to what i'd underwritten in April (sale of equipment hire, $34m tax shield, GF having much more upside than i'd assumed), hence me increasing my stake along the way.
With $30m net cash on balance sheet and capital allocation disasters pre-2016 still front of mind, i remain slightly nervous that all the great work since 2016 could be undone, but i'm hoping that the battalion of deep value investors who probably speak for >25% of GCS' register now (of the 4 that i know are on the register) have drummed it firmly into the executive team's heads that any silly stuff won't be tolerated.
GCS Price at posting:
84.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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