In short, I think the market is starting to understand that any offer put forward will have to be at a premium to get over the line. I believe the latest bump in sp of LLL shows the FFX holdings will not be flogged off on a fire sale.
I believe, should an offer of value be put forward, FFX holders will still have to vote on the sale.
An interested party offering a premium would cause an instant pump to the LLL sp. The offer would then have to be strong enough to resist the time required between calling the meeting and actual vote on it.
The premium would have to be fairly decent… When you consider the sp when Treadstone was contracted, a heavy premium then would be reject by today’s standard. I will say I believe end of March was a fair timeline to put on Treadstone s potential involvement, a month would have been too short, after March would have been too long.
Personally I think a premium at today’s sp would not even be put forward for consideration come end of March should the world keep itself somewhat in check. that premium would also have to be strong enough to resist rises in sp between call of meeting and the actual day of voting.
finally I’ll make a point here, I’ve long been of the opinion Ganfeng trades LLL/ FFX under the banner of Citigroup. Ganfeng is an obvious potential buyer of the FFX shares. as per broker information, Citigroup continues to be a net buyer. It would make sense to me that Citigroup would be buying volumes for Ganfeng now to then attempt to put a ceiling on LLLs sp to prevent continued uptick closer to March. Thats speculation but that’s what I’m thinking as LLL is making a FFX buy out very volatile. suppressing the sp with the upcoming announcements could prove hopefully quite difficult.
FFX Price at posting:
20.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
