FMG 0.65% $18.56 fortescue ltd

Ann: March 2012 Quarterly Production Report , page-18

  1. 876 Posts.
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    Guys
    Been a long term substantial holder. Bullish from the start

    Some things to bear in mind to temper everyones enthusiasm

    FMG is a much higher cost producer than RIO and BHP
    It discounts its selling price more because it has an inferior product to RIO and BHP
    The cost of expansion to 155mt is largely debt funded to avoid dilution vs cash flow funded by RIO and BHP
    High selling prices have masked previously under called capital and operating costs - this could reoccur


    At the long term ave price of $80 te FMG would be marginally profitable

    I'm still a big fan but I'm not sure everyone on here understands the above

    We need to hope that strong prices underpin the growth to 155mte, and that it also enables a reduction in cash cost per tonne to be closer to its peers.
    Actually 300m te targets worry me. At some stage industry expansion will equal demand and if we keep growing there will be no dividends for years. Think I'd prefer a strong balance sheet and high dividends myself
 
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