Fortescue well-placed to ride iron ore price volatility Advertisement
ELIZABETH KNIGHT
Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals reached its long-awaited iron ore production run rate of 155 million tonnes a year while BHP Billiton upped its full-year iron ore production guidance by 5 million tonnes. But while it seems to be raining iron ore, the biggest customer - the Chinese - produced a slightly softer 7.4 per cent GDP number for the March quarter, year on year.
The more muted Chinese growth clearly rattled the market and took some gloss off the value of the Australian dollar - and limited the share price response for BHP and Fortescue.
However, those that closely monitor the Chinese economy should not have been alarmed that the rate of growth has been easing slightly.
At last week's Asian Boao Forum, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang made it clear that this year's growth target was ''about'' 7.5 per cent.
He said the word ''about'' indicates that there is a range for the growth. ''As long as there is fairly sufficient employment and no major fluctuations, the actual GDP growth will be considered to be within the proper range, be it slightly higher or lower than the 7.5 per cent target.''
Premier Li put some additional context to this number that is worth repeating. ''Statistics show that urban employment continued to increase, individual income, corporate profits and fiscal revenue registered steady growth, consumer prices remained stable, growth of electricity consumption rose and there were positive dynamics in structural adjustment. In short, the Chinese economy has got off to a stable and good start.''
But he also issued a caveat that the upturn in the Chinese economy ''is not yet on a solid footing, downward pressure still exists and difficulties in some fields must not be underestimated''.
Fortescue chief executive Nev Power viewed the Chinese GDP number as a strong result and reminded the market that Chinese imports of iron ore rose by 19 per cent in the March quarter and have been soaked up without the closure of any of Chinese higher cost iron ore mines.
Forrest, the largest of the China bulls, takes the view that the Chinese growth revolution is under-appreciated.
Speaking from Boao last week, he told BusinessDay: ''I don't see it is challenging for the [Chinese] government to keep growth between 7 and 8 per cent. They have so many options that are not available to other economies.
''Most Western analysts look at the Chinese economy as though it's the US, Japanese or European economy and it's not. It's an economy with massive untapped foreign reserves and massive ability to increase domestic consumption. It can grow if it wishes to.''
Forrest noted that ''China did a bit of stimulus … on some of their industries and it wasn't greeted with any accolade at all - just a tap on the accelerator as opposed to what they had been doing, just tapping the brakes. That stimulus package alone was greater than anything we had seen in the GFC … they have so much unexploited power to keep their economy growing and to double income by 2020.''
But analysts remain concerned about the higher iron ore volumes that Fortescue and BHP are producing, which when combined with Rio's production expansion plan is going to push up supply and place pressure on prices.
Recent history shows the iron ore price is susceptible to bouts of volatility and there is little by way of consensus on where it will be in the short to medium term.
Meanwhile, underneath the positive production numbers from the two companies, their short-term performances are viewed differently. BHP's stronger production guidance came as a positive surprise, whereas Fortescue's successful increase to 155 million tonnes was greeted with questions on whether it could meet the June 2014 targets.
Power is confident that with the expected clear weather the company remains on track to do so.
While there is every possibility that iron ore's price could fall, Fortescue is now in a far better position to withstand it.
FMG Price at posting:
$5.39 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)