As I've said a few times my first buy was 40c then averaged down all the way and went hard at 3.6 to get my average down to 9.7c now. I'm also holding nearly a mill of these so would like to offload a few when they're in profit to reduce my exposure. I've got a bit in gold miners and physical gold that's where most of my money is at present.
I haven't got the time or skill to do complex valuations like yours instead I consider various research reports, peer analysis, management credibility, economic factors etc to get a ball park feel for where I think the SP should be.
I think fair value for now is 10c due to refinancing risk. We get the finance and 20c is the next target. After that when we ramp up to 50ktpa production we will see 30-50c range. The wildcard is the takeover possibility with copper due to do well this year and next as a shortfall develops. There is plenty of high grade copper in the copper belt were in so one day I think we'll be subject to a takeover that's what I'm hanging on for.
In saying that there's plenty of risks operating in the DRC so I wouldn't have all my eggs in one basket!
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