Maybe DEL comes out tonight with a massive announcement and those who have sold (including myself) will look like massive dills. But all you can do is work with the information you have at the time.
It seems obvious now why we've never seen a Change of Directors's Interests notification. Those in the know aren't buying at any price.
The company I did work for in 2021 had a highly educated, experienced, and qualified workforce. It was operating in a high value niche, and charged a lot for its services. Normalcy bias kicks in. You start to think that no matter how bad things look financially, something will get worked out. It has to, right? There's no way this thing collapses. Nobody offers what this company does on this scale. It's (I'm) too important to humanity! Then of course, it does, and with hindsight it seems so obvious. They had no money. They couldn't get a loan and nobody wanted to invest in it.
I do not regret buying my initial shares 18 months ago. Nor do I regret buying more halfway through the 12 month Planum Partners delay period. I don't regret buying a very small parcel a few weeks ago. My one regret is the parcel I bought a few hours before the announced closure of the retail division @ 11¢; shortly after the Palisade announcement in October. I should have known better, and got carried away, thinking the road ahead was now clear.
The more I think about Emptytrolly's theory of all funding being to actually prop-up the pre-listing projects rather than the intended, as-advertised, future BOOM projects, the more sense it makes. It makes perfect sense now. I suspect this entire time we've been funnelling money towards those projects. Now, DEL is trying to get Palisade Impact to fund the BOOM sites which earlier money was supposed to fund. I remember DEL getting a notice from the ASX soon after listing to clear up discrepancies in the IPO prospectus. Answers to ASX inquiries are rarely satisfactory, but rarely followed up by the ASX. It should have been a warning sign to me.
Maybe I'm reading this all wrong and assuming too much. But the language used is like a young child saying to the parents, "YOU won't buy me a pony but it doesn't matter because I know Aunt Karen has plenty of money. She's loaded. Money on tap. I'll just ask her. A few thousand dollars is nothing to her". The problem is, Aunt Karen is a sophisticated investor, shrewd with her money and not easily impressed
Just as BigCityTrader suggests, Palisade is not a charity. They care not about the interests of DEL, but of their investors. If the two projects were incredible opportunities, you'd think they would have been waved through by the investment committee very quickly and built ASAP.
riteley, I too mostly avoid speculative stocks, but they can be fun and highly profitable, in moderation. Salt or chili is good too in small doses, but you don't douse your plate in it! Owning just BHP, CBA, CSL and some ETFs would be boring. Risk management is a must.
How the so-called b"BOOM pipeline" grew from $200m to $500m overnight, soon after listing, is a feat I'll probably never truly appreciate. They should have stayed in WA and focused on EPC/BOOM sites there. Chasing work in NZ and rural SA after just one plant, a decade ago in Jandekot, was a couple of bridges too far.
EPC builds are tricky and financially perilous, for much more experienced and better resourced companies than DEL. It's hard to control costs and get it right.
Yes, the assembled team, and work done so far, plus the licenses would be worth something. The SA1 land alone was worth about $1.8m when I checked on realestate.com a while back. Ideally, someone with very deep pockets and an engineering background, would buy the company for 10¢ per share, get rid of the directors, dump $50m in the bank as working capital, build the plants, and get the rewards.
Imagine if the binding agreement with Palisade Impact is structured so the Palisade investment committee can simply self-declare it's not interested. It would be akin to signing a contract to buy a house subject to finance, and subject to the agreement of your business partner. Of course, your business partner is actually your cat, but that's a minor detail. I just don't know what DEL does for working capital if the agreement falls over and Aunt Karen is more frugal than expected. The only possible option is a cap raise. Only $1.62m of $2m was raised last time, and 0.12m of that was the 4 directors' purchases. Would DEL be bogged down in legal action? If the deal really is binding you'd think so. Plus the cap raise at, what, two cents. It's unthinkable.
That one word, "potentially" was the final straw for me. If/when financing is organised I really will look like a dill when the share price jumps 30% in a day. I'd probably struggle to not be involved, even with a minimum $500 stake, if SA1 actually goes ahead. But the gap between what I'm being told, and what's actually happening, is too great for me.
With an open, transparent and honest management promising tough times, but a clear roadmap to strong profitability in 3 or 4 years' time I wouldn't care less how low the share price is. I'd be catching that falling knife like crazy all the way down. At the moment, there's far too much need to take on trust management's vague claims, and not enough hard reality. As I said yesterday, mining industry type scoping studies and definitive feasibility studies, and frequent investor calls, plus an investor relations person would be a great start. Unfortunately, management has burnt through all the goodwill they had. I doubt they even care, to be honest.
