Ann: March 2023 Quarterly Activities Report, page-19

At a margin of AUD100 per ton & sales of 10 m tons (and more likely to be 12m-14m+) the EBITDA would be circa AUD$1b. My guess is that the current margin is more like AUD 150 per ton at current prices (or AUD1.8b EBITDA at 12m tons of sales). Looking at the EBITDA further. "I" will soon be $0 as no debt. "DA" is non-cash item - real issue is capex as that is a cash outflow which can't be returned to shareholders. "T" 30% of EBITDA (conservative as there are likely capital allowances etc) but generates franking credits.

Pretty easy to get to AUD500m cash for a distribution to shareholders which is circa 50c per share at calendar year end 23. And not impossible to get to AUD1b....... or circa $1 per share.

My guess is that the share price will not reflect the underlying earnings of the company until a dividend is paid and investors have the cash in their pockets!

What does Buffet say? "In the short term the share market is a voting machine in the long term it is a weighing machine"

Coal is unpopular at the moment hence it is being "voted down". But can't defy gravity for ever.

GLTAH, NFA, IMHO, DYOR etc.

BSP