ARL 0.00% 60.0¢ ardea resources limited

There will always be risks. Doesn't matter whether it's ARL,...

  1. 313 Posts.
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    There will always be risks.
    Doesn't matter whether it's ARL, AUZ, PLS, FMG, BHP, RIO, Australian fiat currency, property, CV-19 vaccine, flying in a plane, etc.
    Back in the day when I attended a professional risk management training session, the trainer told all the attendees that the only time that risks no longer exist for us individually is when we are dead. A brutally realistic point made by the trainer.

    ARL team is very conservative in its market/shareholders communication. Should be clear by now that they prefer to underpromise and overdeliver.
    If some of the progress made is not yet 100% in place to be considered of significance, it is fully within ARL team's prerogative and within ASX' regulations to await finalisation before releasing an announcement.
    Not at all professional to play the market's/shareholders' emotions, as a few charismatic CEOs of other companies were criticised of doing.

    I noted that what weren't mentioned in this release but would likely have occurred during the quarter were the $20M grant submission and the R&D Tax Incentive Rebate of $1M. Conservsatism at play here?

    Interestingly, what was mentioned was Kalgoorlie Nickel Pty Ltd (KNPL), and that it is being set up to complete the GHR DFS. Meaning still in progress of reviving an inherited dormant subsidiary from the days of Heron. But why mention this particular and basically a routine corporate development?
    My guess is that our HC posts were read and a morsel given out to calm us down.

    Looks like the financiers prefer a significantly higher component in loan than in equity.
    If the original vision of 49% share issued to project partners remains unchanged, then the financiers' initial indicative preference is a ratio that is greater than 24.5% loan : 24.5% equity. Probably 30% loan : 19% equity.
    If so, then the equity structure would meet the FIRB's approval, provided that each foreign interest holds only half of the total issued equity, being 9.5%.

    Guessing that the next stage of shares issuance causing dilution to LT shs' portfolio might be at only 19% then.
    Hopefully, a sp rerating more than makes up for the dilution. Else, have to top up again, this time for another 20%.

    Two other discussion points were Kalpini and the DFS drilling at the Highway tenement.
    These two points suggested to me that Sc mineral is seriously considered under the DFS, and then post-Goongarie, NiS will be the next focus.

    There were a lot of techie info which kind of glazed my eyes. These are for the drillers, geos, mining engineers, and metallurgists amongst us LT shs.
    I'll need more time to absorb and process.

    Overall impression:
    • ARL is continuing its impressive progress on the GHR. Much of the progress was indicated in the preceeding quarterly. Good to see that the "promises" contonue to be overdelivered.
    • The ARL Team is focussed, working hard and know what they are doing, being guided by a much bigger strategic long-term vision set by a dedicated BOD.
    • The JC Team like ARL's mineral potential and have collaborated very well with the ARL Team. Their confidence in the continuing cooperation between both teams is shown by the initial DFS work already in progress while awaiting the formalisation of the DFS document.
    • The ring-fencing approach is in the works. (Not mentioned in this quarterly, but post 31 March, the 4 NewCos were registered.) Corporate activity and momentum has definitely increased.
    • Team Australia and Team WA would have talked to Team ARL and given a royal tour to the tenements.

    My sentiment:
    Not easy to find a comparable investment in the mining sector in terms of blue sky potential, notwithstanding the low/medium risks that will always exist. Holding tight and buying more when opportunity is presented by weak hands.
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