I estimate they sold 4,803 scripts in Q1. Assuming a 35% gross-to-net discount, the only floating variable is net pricing, solved to a weighted average of US$425/script for the quarter.
I would be happy if they could hit the below first year launch (my own estimates). 230k scripts, US$98M net rev, 0.69% penetration (nice), 82% closing refill rate.
On a US equivalent basis (i.e. after applying a 2.7x population multiplier), I estimate this would be ~2.5x what Kaken did in their first year. Seems achievable considering US structural advantages (prescription marketing, convenient DTC channel, low/no copay).
Note these are accrual figures. Month 1 = Jan 2025.
(20min delay)