Bluefin..... thanks for the article link.
I note that the 1st takeover that has allready come true was J&J, for a price of 14 Billion USD, and there reasoning:
"Duato said J&J agreed to acquire Intra-Cellular because its sole marketed drug CAPLYTA® (lumateperone),
could generate more than $5 billion in peak year sales.
That projected performance, J&J concluded, could help it fulfill its commitment to investors to generate 5% to 7% compounded average growth between this year and 2030—and would elevate sales above the projections of analysts covering the company, Duato asserted."
So, if we forget net pricing and go back to gross sales of the pharmalisted pricing of around $1000 USD per month.
5 billion, divide by 1,000, divide by 12 = number of 12 month prescriptions needed for 5 Billion in Sofdra sales.
= 416,000 people using Sofdra.
This represents 11.2% penetration of existing patients being treated....... or
2.7% penetration of the 15.3 million estimated sufferers
So, is 11% or 2.7% a reasonable market penetration? In Japan I think they are over 11% by my estimate?
We have 42 glowing reviews about the product on line, and that matches with the companies 100% refill rate.
If so... why not 14.8 Billion takeover
$12.60 AUD a share at that MC.
(20min delay)