I have no idea what the odds are of a capital raise this year...

I have no idea what the odds are of a capital raise this year but it appears from the limited disclosure on the convertible note terms in the 2019 annual report that any equity raise at these levels would come at enormous additional cost:

The notes are convertible into ordinary shares of the Company at any time between the date of issue of the notes and their settlement date. On issue, the loan notes were convertible into ordinary shares at the lower of $3.50 or at a 20 per cent discount to any future share issuance. The conversion price is at a per cent premium to the share price of the ordinary shares at the date the convertible loan notes were issued.

If the notes have not been converted, they will be redeemed on 3 October 2020 at par.

It is not clear from the disclosures who holds the redemption and conversion rights (issuer, holder or mutual), but an additional $1.75M converted at these levels would be disastrous. I can't see Mark wanting to suffer that dilution.

What is clear is that we need Mark to be on top of his capital management game over the next 6-12 months while these operating conditions persist and as the company looks to expand its product set and market coverage. That starts with ensuring that these notes are redeemed and not converted.

The current CN facility was disclosed on 3 Oct 2018, in time to fund stocking for 2018 Christmas. Presumably redemption on or before 3 Oct 2020 should provide enough time to roll into another similar or alternate facility before stocking for 2020 Christmas.