A look at the long term chart brings up some interesting comparisons. Before going on, IMO past experience is not necessarily a good guide to what we can expect this time but it looks interesting nonetheless and might just offer clues of what the sp might do from here if sales in the UK do well.
The last big rally more than 10 years ago, to $6.30 lasted three and a half years and was ended by the GFC (the current rally is at 1.5 years).
Similarly to 2018, the 2004-2007 rally also had a sales agreements in NZ (for the school messaging business) and then a trial and launch (into the US that time, Europe this time).
In 2006 a US trial was launched for school messaging (sp was fluctuating between $1-$2). Now we have just launched a UK online trial with the sp at $4.
When the US school messaging operations were launched, the sp was at $2 and it then tripled to over $6 during the next 6 months before markets got the jitters at the start of the GFC. Unfortunately for the company, the GFC ended expansion plans in the US.
Spacetalk UK online trial has just been launched with the sp at around $4. Launch with the UK retailers is scheduled for next quarter. Sp at launch? SP 6 months later? I expect that whether it triples again or not will depend on sales data out of the UK and further overseas expansion plans.
Some interesting chart indicator comparisons below.
Both previous rallies were only just warming up as the 100DMA crossed above the 200DMA (green circles) and the big gains came 1-2 years after that. With the currently rally, the moving average crossover only occurred recently and the price has only rallied around 30% so far.
The 2004-2007 rally from around 50c to over $6 was on much lighter volumes than the current rally and the Money flow indicator was weak in the earlier rally but looks very strong this time (blue circles).
Based on previous and current patterns and indicators, this rally might have a long way to go.
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