I think the points that you had raised are all very valid. I had been searching around for reasons on why gold price hasn't risen (i.e. obviously will reflect on DCN price: DCN is now a pure gold play for me since I had given up on management).
The most convincing reason I can come up with is that the current gold price weakness is due to the stock market turning risk-off given the FED had turned more hawkish with expected higher interest rate hike and continued inflationary pressure. These are now reflected in the declining Dow, S&500, etc.... Under this scenario, there will be some investors who are under margin calls and therefore they will have to dump their investment in gold to respond to the margin calls (this had been reason attributed to declining gold price when stock market tanked)! Historically when stock market tanks, gold price will also tank but it will recover much faster than stock. Hence at this declining stage of the stock market cycle, I am holding on and hoping for the best.
The chart that I posted is on the assumption that DXY (USD Index: 57.6% weighted to Euros) will tank for April and this will be reflected in the rise in gold price as per the 1977-1979 period. I must add that conditions of 1977-1979 looks very similar to the current condition (i.e. assuming 2022-2024) in two key areas i.e. high inflation and declining DXY. However since then, DXY has moved up even higher and had broken through the trendline and that is primarily due to further weakness in Euros due to ongoing Ukrainian/Russian war and likewise the Japanese Yen had also decline to record level. Hence there is no good news on the gold front. Perhaps May is when DXY will decline (hoping).
Good luck to you and all.
Cheers.
