I firmly believe Syrah management knows the published market prices are not the real prices buyers pay, Yes as you report Syrah can not divulge prices paid since they are condsider "intergral part of IP" However Syrah can stop misleading investory if they want and report that their market prices will be lower that what the experts cartex refers to as not being correct.
As I read Syrah 1st QT 2018 cash flow report I believe investors need to be extreely concerned with Syrah statements about being cash flow positive in 2018? Syrah will burn thur at least another US$35m after June 30th 2018 plus what every amount is spent on the spherical graphite operation thus Syrah will be in need of new capaital by year end 2018. "Forecast cash balance end Q2 2018 ~US$55m"
I also question that Syrah will be able to sell all 160,000/mt less the 11.2/mt graphite producedl in 1st qt 2018 or 148,800/mt between now and December 31 2018. "Targeting lower end of guidance 160kt to 180kt1" The grphite market is not growing as fast as Syrah reports and supply comming from Chnese graphite mines is still strong and at same time Syrah is not the only graphite mining company that added new capasity in the last year. Besides Syrah 2018 capasity of 160,000 to 180,000 the graphite mining industry added addtional 76,000/mt of new capasity which is competing with Syrah in the market tody.
I also believe Syrah is extremely optimistic that they are going to recieve higher basket price in 2nd half 2018 as they just reported "Higher basket price expected in H2 2018 given full sales and production profile, product consistency and grade premium. Basket price impacted by qualification shipments, higher fines production and China pricing" We all know most of Syrah revenues are expected to come from China and they report the Chinese pricing is lower then expected.
SYR Price at posting:
$3.21 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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