I don't disagree, it's not a good position to be in. There's no time for a buffer to wait for sentiment to shift either. The company should have started a campaign to launch capital a month or two ago. Now the circumstances are not favorable and there's no choices left.
It seems when the company should have been accelerating they chose to coast and now when they need to accelerate they have to coast. Like you said, management have been prudent with capital and yet all of a sudden they drop the ball. It doesn't really make sense which is why people are speculating news next week. I don't believe any news is coming other than a raise but I do believe there's room for speculation which will cause intrigue and potentially some buying interest pushing a pump in the share price which will catch a few people out when they do raise.
Looking back even in 2020 management were happy to raise smaller amounts multiple times in order to drive interest and price action. It was something like a $6m raise and then a $10m raise not long afterwards and then the $50m. Management don't appear to be against issuing capital to prop the business up. I also know that management did have a change up at the time as well but prior to that the company was floating along in survival mode unable to gain any real traction. It's looking like even though management has changed, the mental limitations or lack of a success mindset if you will, still remains.
As an example of what I mean the business only a few years ago made a big move into mobile gaming. The company raised capital and made acquisitions in a bid to capitalize on trends in order to drive growth. There was minimal traction with a sort of break even/minor loss incurred and eventual write downs. I'm not saying that the situations are identical and that things will play out this same. The company has made a better acquisition with IDSB and I don't mean better as in well timed or the right call for the business direction but in terms of buying a good money making, growing business, they have done that but at the expense of required capital. Without much capital remaining and another raise on the cards IOU can't really execute on marketing BNPL back to the IDSB customers because there's no cash to cover it.
The mission statement for IOU has been about becoming a leading digital payments processor in South East Asia. To me that doesn't state in black and white that the company wants to focus solely on BNPL. Data shows that BNPL is the fastest growing payment option as it now equates to 2% of retail spending globally. To add to that stat, SEA is predicted to be the fastest growing region for BNPL. It's a growth driver but it's definitely not a method that builds the bottom line of the P&L statement. Mobile transactions have grown fairly well, has good margins and is likely to increase however it's not enough to sustain the capital required to cover BNPL. Without the funding facility BNPL is all but dead in the water.
I am rambling a bit now as I think out loud. Which ever way you look at it, the overall execution has been poor and the business is backed into a corner. If there was a master plan it does appear to have failed at this stage. It's salvageable but there's going to be pain associated in my opinion.
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