Excellent announcement. And to think there is still Mahongany, Machabel, Musuma, Mopane and Mukwa that have not been assessed due to not enough seismic data.
Regarding the COS, I love this stuff and was very interested in one of the interviews when SM mentioned that ERCE were using additional metrics than the typical 4 to determine the COS.
Its nice that they included the full table in the announcement so we can see exactly what's going on (table 2)
They use a slightly modified version of the typical 4 which I've mentioned before on the prospect risk (see below for my previous post), however they double up the Source, reservoir and seal risk as a play risk as no confirmed presence in the region. This really hurts the end COS and as soon as a working system is confirmed (fingers crossed) the COS regarding pure prospects jumps to 35%
"I'm by no means a Geologist however, my understanding of the 4 typical elements is; Source Rock (material from which hydrocarbons form), Migration (whether these hydrocarbon can migrate out of the source rock - Oil seep that we have found shows yes), Reservoir (Porous rock or open fractures present to contain the seeping hydrocarbon) and Trap (how good a seal the reservoir has - no good if it all seeps to the surface)Say if we are 75% sure of each element. when multiplied together we get COS (0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 * 0.75 = 31.6% COS)The 7 that EREC use would be an expansion on this, is my guess. Any additional measurable added would only make the COS less unless its 100% proven. Even 99% lowers the COS. "
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