Ann: Market update deleveraging plan, bank covenants, guidance, page-40

And here is where I am confused. In their latest update they say "The shareholder loan, and the future equity raise, will enable Synlait to reduce its debt to a sustainable level."

First off the $130m shareholder loan has to be considered "debt. $130m can't be sustainable because they are also talking about a equity raise. So equity has to be at least $130m - that breaks them even with the new loan.

Gee how much do they need?

Theres over $500m in debt to be repaid in the next 12 months. So surely they will go for just one equity raise - so it has to be a good one.

Since they are making a loss no chance of paying off debt from cash.

I don't know. Maybe they need $250m in extra cash. And as you point out current market cap is $84m. So that has to be 3 times market cap.

Imagine the share dilution to achieve that. There are no winners here. Bright and A2 can put the cash in to maintain their equity levels. But small shareholders are totally screwed. So why would they support both the $130 loan and the equity raise.

I'm just not seeing a way out.

But there are smarter heads than mine because every day people are buying the head shares. Event though folks have given up on the bonds