I think that the current market price 39/40c is already...

I think that the current market price 39/40c is already factoring in the potential for a capital return or a special franked dividend.

I suspect that the ACCC will allow the sale to Aspen.

You have pointed to the negatives and there is a real risk with those risks coming to fruition.

So if the sale goes through, and then the company does give some money back to shareholders, what is going to be left? My view is that the answer is it will be a wholesale operation, that has still yet to rein in the trading terms of its major customers, who owe significant amounts of money.

And now to top it off, the size of the market for the wholesaler has just got significantly smaller, and other manufacturers will go down the same path as Pfeizer has determined to go. That being the case, the business value will diminish even further, so I cannot see the upside, other than the possibility to get a one off special div. Once the stock trades ex that special div., the share price could diminish rapidly if holders opted out for greener pastures, so the sharetrade loss could be larger than expected.

Perhaps I am being too pessimistic, but that is how I see it.