NPAT (2012 = 18.2m) vs. (2013 forecast = 15-16m) drop of 12-17%
Sales (2012 = $276m) vs. (2013 forecast = $300m) up 8.7%
However... shares on issue increased 23% due to capital raising recently thus shares increased from 72.4m to 89.3m
Based on above:
2012 EPS of 23.5c vs. 2013 EPS of 17.9c (@ 16m NPAT est.) or 24% drop.
2012 distribution of 17c @ 72% payout ratio
IF 2013 distribution at same ratio then 12.9c dividends or 7.2% yield @ $1.80 SP
IF 2013 distribution at lower minimum 60% of NPAT (continued operations) then dividend of 10.75c or yield of 6% @ $1.80 SP.
Not bad but not great either.
Key will be how MCP performs going forward with the acquisitions and bedding these into their existing operations.
Clear that some retailers (probably Woolies and Coles) are squeezing MCP on margins. Diversification away from these low margin, monopolistic channels is important IMO.
I will not sell and allow them time to show that they are extracting value from their recent acquisitions.
Appears that retail in Australia is going to get tougher from here looking at macro data/ sentiment.
Probably going to be a strong reaction to profit downgrade based on other sectors reaction to downgrades (e.g mining services). If SP falls materially then possibly an opportunity for those who believe in management's ability and MCP's strategy.
I'll be interested around $1.50 - $1.30.
Cheers John
MCP Price at posting:
$1.83 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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