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05/12/14
17:21
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Originally posted by dubspec
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One up on you mate as I was shorting this since september. The business model is so falwed that the PE it was at was boom style thinking. Its a business model that relies of goverment funds which are being rorted. Just look who is involved. Look what has been taken off the table by the founders. Look at how quick the people in the know (ie. ex Labor eduction ministers) jump on this industry and then jump off before the rort is closed. The only director who doesn't quite 'get it' is the young bloke who still has 'founder optimism' and is still in the stock.
The underwriters have some explaining to do to. If you want to make money is this space, then short Acquired Learning when it lists. It too is a flawed business model and I will look forward to seeing the founders getting their cash out as soon as they can to the unsuspecting retail investors who get sucked in by UBS (and the likes) who care about getting the distribution out at the highest price - thats how they get paid folks. When you get players in the market selling 100% goverment courses in Warehouse operations Cert III which is administered overseas then you know something is sus and that it won't continue. There is a RTO near me called 'Harward International university' and its slogan is 'knowledge is power surpreme'. When you get these popping up and their whole model relying of goverment hand-outs then you know there is an issue. PE ratio should be 2x, not 30x. By the way, the uni in the same building as Haward is Cambridge. I mean seriously. Bring back the tafes (gov owned) and cut these education vultures out of the gravy train.
I have so many examples of rorts in this industry I could write a book on it. I have examples going all the way back to the training of staff for the pinkbatts and led lights shcemes.
All my own opinions. Not advice
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Dubspec, thats one of the best calls on an industry Ive ever read on this site. You are obviously a very smart trader. Thanks for posting. Glad you,ve made a killing on this one, you fully deserve it.
A friend of mine attended a massage course owned by VET and she said student numbers exploded after fee- help was introduced to the college. The college upped its fees at the same time. False economics, subsidised business building with tax payers money.