I agree $40m NPAT for the full year is a conservative figure, as...

I agree $40m NPAT for the full year is a conservative figure, as is 20% HoH revenue growth. As I say that assumes no HoH volume growth, only the impact of the price increase which has already been achieved. There are no associated costs with the 20% price hike so it will flow straight to the bottom line.

If BAL deliver 50% revenue growth 2H over 1H as you are thinking then NPAT will be higher than $40m, likely closer to $45-50m (including c$32-37m in 2H). That remains a possibility but I'd want more clarity from the company as to how much supply growth they are expecting.