Thanks for your detailed response. But, I feel the use of the word "panic" in last paragraph is like a pilot saying "cruising at 38,000 feet, there is no need to panic".
I think that some of the difference in the 10% and 15% is CAGR is due to the changing dynamic in 4x4s, as they point out in their presentation with new vehicle sales. ARB have been able to ride the wave of change in the type of vehicles sold and the economic flow-on of the mining boom. I think it is testament to ARB that even though the bottom has fallen out of the mining industry, the effect on its WA, SA and Qld business was noticeable, but not catastrophic. While they don't sell alot directly into mining companies, the ARB products do sell better to cashed up mining contractors and mining employees who have their own LandCruiser, Hilux, etc.
From what I understand, they are increasing their warehousing near each manufacturing site in order to clear space for more manufacturing. Given ARB's history on managing capacity, I think we can give the management some leeway with not providing real detail on what they plan, but we know they are doing something about it.
I don't think there was any issue with tooling up for so many new vehicle releases (capacity issues). It was more about having to design, engineer, test and produce new products for these vehicles. A bullbar is unique to each and every model (and still one of ARB's major drawcards) so it takes time for the R&D department to get the bar (and other necessary accessories) to be production ready. They recognised this bottleneck and, from what they have said here, they were able to get the products to market in a reasonable timeframe.
Regarding the USA, it is a very different market from Australia, but ARB now have some dedicated products for this market and they are growing. And you are right, it is not as fast as we would like, but I think they are addressing it with an extra warehouse in the country and continuing to add products. A new production facility? IMO the sums would have been done on this and they would know when it would be worth their while to open a production plant in the USA. I am sure they will do it only when it is financially beneficial.
On another note, I have heard that ARB is now being more active with their IP rights on their patents and designs. You can use the IP Australia website to see these. By being smarter with their legal options (gaining design patents), they are able to successfully stop "ARB copies" from hitting the market. This is not limited to
bull bars, but other products like
fuel tanks, lights, swags and probably many more. This ensures not only that the R&D that ARB puts into its products stay with ARB, but also that the premium status of ARB products is maintained.
Overall, in my view, a reasonable Market Update. Nothing to worry about, nothing to brag about - just business as usual for ARB.
.
(20min delay)