After two months of a near-total lockdown in many parts of the country, China seems to be getting back to business, with important indicators like electricity and steel demand and auto manufacturing returning to levels not far from normal.
That raises a big question for Europe and the United States, which are only now suffering the full brunt of the coronavirus pandemic: Can they just swallow a horrific second quarter and bank on a healthy economic recovery in the rest of the year? In other words, are the world’s major economies still on track for what’s known as a V-shaped recovery, as most forecasters seem to expect despite their catastrophic projections for the second quarter? Or given the complete shutdown of entire industries—from airlines to restaurants—will big economies essentially flatline?
